For the provision of secure and stable operation of the Latvian electricity transmission system in the upcoming decade, is important to ensure the availability of controllable high-capacity base load power plants that could participate in the balancing services provision and covering the country's peak load as needed, says the annual assessment report published by the Latvian electricity transmission system operator AS "Augstsprieguma tīkls" (AST).

A significant increase of the electricity amount, produced by renewable energy sources (RES) is planned in Latvia and the whole Baltic Sea region, which will increase electricity export. In 2023, compared to 2022, the increase of electricity export produced in Latvia reached 9%. According to the base development scenario, Latvian domestic generation will increase from 3550 MW in 2024 to 6457 MW in the next 10 years, the report states.

The construction of RES connections to the transmission network plays an essential role in the development of RES. Currently, the construction of 12 solar and wind power plants for connection to the transmission network with a total capacity of 1.1 GW has been started in Latvia. In total, the reserved capacity in the transmission network for new RES power plants reached 6 GW, which is in line with the transmission system operator (TSO) annual statement  optimistic scenario forecast. The report says that in order to ensure the security and stability of the transmission system, it will require even more careful long-term network planning with more precise information from developers about project implementation timelines. At the same time, the necessity for balancing power will increase significantly in the Baltics, especially after the Baltic power systems synchronization with power systems of continental Europe. Therefore  the Baltic TSOs are developing a regional balancing market, which is planning to start operation in 2025.

The report emphasizes that the Baltic power systems synchronization with continental Europe is a top priority project in Latvia and in  Baltics. To reduce the risks in the Baltic power system, which have increased after start of war in Ukraine, a political decision was made in August 2023 to start the Baltic synchronization with continental Europe in February 2025 - almost a year earlier than originally planned. In Latvia, the reinforcements of the 330 kV electricity transmission grid necessary for the synchronization have been completed, including the reconstruction of two Latvian-Estonian interconnections, increasing the  transmission capacity of Latvian and Estonia grid. Currently, the three Baltic States TSOs are developing the last projects, which will provide secure and stable operation of the electricity transmission systems after start of synchronization. These projects in Latvia include synchronous condensers, high-capacity battery energy storage systems and power system control and management systems, which will improve the frequency control and balancing process after synchronization with continental European. Disconnection (desynchronisation) from the Russian controlled energy system (called BRELL ring), synchronization with the electricity transmission systems of continental Europe and deeper integration into the common European electricity market will improve the security of electricity supply in Latvia and Baltics.

The report states that according to the resource adequacy assessment, prepared by European Electricity Network Transmission System Operators Association (ENTSO-E), there are no significant risks for electricity supply resource adequacy in Latvia until 2030. At the same time, for the level of power adequacy to be higher at the regional level, the bigger attention should be paid to the planning of RES generation, as well as to the sufficiency of balancing and regulation reserves. Therefore, interconnections, reinforcement of the electricity transmission network and closer and faster integration of the Baltic electricity system into the European electricity market will play a significant role in covering of the electricity demand and provision of the necessary connections to the RES producers. This will require increasing the capacity of interconnections with Estonia and Lithuania, as well as developing new interconnections to Sweden and Germany.

For further support the development of RES in Latvia, with simultaneous reducing carbon dioxide emissions and moving towards a climate-neutral energy system, it is necessary to promote the development of electricity consumption technologies in Latvia and their connection to the transmission network, i.e. electrification in the economy, transport and energy industry sector, as well as development of battery energy storage systems technologies.

The report of transmission system operator emphasizes that the development of hydrogen and other P2X technologies can significantly increase the consumption of Latvia's electricity system in the future. To promote this, at the same time keep the security and stability of the Latvian electricity transmission system, investments in reinforcement of the 330 kV and 110 kV electricity transmission network will be necessary. According to respective forecasts performed, consumption could increase from 7,433 GWh to 9,002 GWh over the next 10 years, with peak load reaching 2,002 MW.

The report can be found on the AST website at https://www.ast.lv/en/content/tso-annual-statement.