Latvian electricity market overview

The most important events in the market in 2024:

Electricity price:

• In 2024, the average electricity price in Latvia decreased to 87,43 EUR per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh), representing a 7% decline compared to 2023;
• The lowest monthly price level last year was recorded in April at 60,23 EUR/MWh, while the highest price of 117,22 EUR/MWh was reached in January;
• The increase in electricity generation from renewable energy sources and the decline in natural gas prices in 2024 contributed to lower electricity prices across Europe, with significantly lower prices in the Nordic countries, where the share of renewable energy sources is higher;
• Significant fluctuations in electricity prices in Latvia on a daily basis from April to September were caused by the increasing share of solar power plants – on sunny days, prices between 9:00 and 18:00 were up to 75% lower than during the rest of the day;
• Across Europe, the number of hours with negative electricity prices increased significantly due to high volumes of renewable electricity generation when demand was low. The highest number of such hours in 2024 was recorded in Finland – 725 hours, marking a 55% increase from 2023, while in Latvia, the number of negative price hours rose to 184 hours;
• The electricity price dynamics in Latvia are also significantly influenced by developments in the European markets. For example, in October 2024, there was a high number of negative electricity prices, despite low solar electricity feed-in, indicating that the prevalence of negative prices is mainly linked to energy surpluses elsewhere in Europe.

Electricity production and consumption in Latvia and the Baltic States:

In Latvia:

• The total amount of electricity generated and injected into the grid in Latvia in 2024 reached 5 906 gigawatt-hours (GWh), which is 3% less than in 2023;
• Latvia’s electricity consumption increased by 1% to 6 980 GWh in 2024. However, considering the installation of solar power plants for self-consumption in households and businesses, the actual amount of generated and consumed electricity in Latvia is higher, as some of the generated electricity is used immediately for self-consumption and not injected into the grid;
• In 2024, local electricity generation covered 84,6% of Latvia’s electricity consumption, which is 4 percentage points lower than in 2023. The missing electricity volume – 1 074 GWh – was imported from neighboring countries;
• In 2024, the amount of electricity generated and injected into the grid by solar power plants increased more than 3,1 times, surpassing wind power plants and becoming the third-largest electricity source, following cogeneration plants and hydropower plants. This growth was driven by the connection of new solar power plants to the grid. As a result, solar power’s share in Latvia’s electricity generation balance increased from 2,1% in 2023 to 6,7% in 2024, with a record-high generation of 66 GWh in August;
• Wind power plants fed 2% more electricity into the grid than in 2023, reaching a new record of 38 GWh in December;
• Although the electricity generation from hydropower plants decreased by 16% in 2024, reaching 3 192 GWh, hydropower plants remain the primary electricity generation source in Latvia, providing 54% of the total electricity finjected into the grid.

In the Baltic States

• The balance of electricity generation and consumption in the Baltic states showed different trends. In Lithuania, electricity injected into the grid increased by 40%, in Estonia by 6%, while in Latvia it decreased by 3%, leading to an overall 14% increase in electricity injected into the grid across the Baltic States. The higher growth in generation in Latvia’s neighboring countries was due to the faster expansion of new solar and wind power plants;
• In contrast, consumption volumes remained at a similar level as in 2023, with the total electricity consumption in the Baltic states increasing by 2%. As a result, the share of consumption covered by local generation varied across the Baltic states last year: 84,6% in Latvia, 63,1% in Lithuania (an increase of 16,5 percentage points), and 61,8% in Estonia (an increase of 4 percentage points). The overall ratio for the Baltic states was 68,2%, and since 2018, Latvia has maintained the highest share among the Baltic countries.

Renewable energy:

• In 2024, the rapid construction of solar power plants in Latvia continued, significantly increasing the total installed capacity. While in 2022, the total solar generation capacity connected to the distribution system operators was around 100 MW, it reached 305 MW in 2023. By the end of 2024, the total solar generation capacity had grown to 660 MW, with further growth expected in 2025;
• The volume of electricity generated from renewable energy sources is having an increasing impact on the energy system. Therefore, since July 2024, "Augstsprieguma tīkls" (AST) has been publishing forecasts for the electricity volume injected into the grid from solar power plants. These forecasts are based on meteorological predictions, the solar power plants connected to distribution system operators, including microgeneration, their installed capacities, and the historical electricity volumes injected into the grid.
• From July 2024 to the end of the year, a comparison of AST's published solar power generation forecasts with the actual data from distribution system operators showed high forecast accuracy. Out of 4 417 hours, only 0,2% of the hours had a deviation of more than 100 MWh, 1,8% of the cases had a deviation between 50 and 100 MWh, and in the majority of cases (98%), the difference between the forecasted and actual data was less than 50 MWh. This indicates a strong alignment between the predicted and actual values.

Electricity import to the Baltic States:

• The electricity sector in the Baltic states was negatively affected by unplanned outages of the "EstLink 2" connection between Finland and Estonia, which was down from January 26 to September 4, with another outage on December 25, and repairs expected to be completed by August 1, 2025. As a result, only 358 MW of transmission capacity was available from the total 1 016 MW via "EstLink 1";
• Electricity imports into the Baltic transmission networks fell by 15%, reaching 11 004 GWh, with the largest drop (41,9%) in imports from Finland, due to "EstLink 2" outages. This was compensated by a 62,6% increase in imports from Poland and a 6,3% increase in imports from Sweden, with Sweden accounting for 47% of total imported electricity;
• Despite unplanned outages, Latvia’s energy system remained stable and secure, as generation capacity and transmission capacity were sufficient to meet Latvia’s electricity demand. However, in the long term, the December 25 "EstLink 2" failure could impact electricity market prices across the Baltic states.

Guarantees of Origin (GOs):

• The number of issued Guarantees of Origin (GOs) decreased by 6% compared to 2023, reaching 5 020 GWh;
• Imported GOs volume in 2024 declined by 40%, indicating that Latvian producers have increased their ability to meet GOs demand;
• The largest volume of imported GOs in 2024 came from Estonia (360 493 GOs), while the largest export volume was to Norway (3 910 007 GOs).

Balancing market:

• On October 9, 2024, the Baltic transmission system operators AST (Latvia), Elering (Estonia), and Litgrid (Lithuania) stopped using the regional Baltic CoBA system for mFRR activations and joined the European balancing reserves platform MARI (Manually Activated Reserves Initiative);
• With the transition to MARI, data granularity changed from 1-hour to 15-minute intervals;
• The average imbalance price in 2024 decreased in both Latvia and the Baltic states, with Latvia’s imbalance price falling by 13% to 90,07 EUR/MWh.

Raw data for 2024 can be downloaded here.

In case of any doubts, questions or inaccuracies, please contact us at [email protected].

Starting from May 2024, all calculations and data in the monthly electricity overviews are processed according to the Eastern European Time (EET) zone. In the annual overview, all monthly data are adjusted to the EET time zone and are based on the most up-to-date information, which may differ from the monthly overviews if the data source has updated the data after the monthly overview.

Electricity production and consumption balance in Latvia*

* Here and in the following review, the electricity produced is the electricity injected into the grid and the electricity consumed is the electricity received from the grid for consumption.

** Fossil energy source – fossil gas; renewable energy sources – hydro, solar, wind, biogas and biomass.

Balance of the electricity production and consumption in the Baltic States

Interconnection load and electricity prices

Price comparison between neighbouring bidding areas

Load of the Baltic States interconnections

Electricity import to the Baltic States  [5]

GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN (GOs)

Statistics of the activity in the Latvia Domain for GOs

Statistics on exports and imports in the Latvia Domain for GOs in 2024

BALANCING MARKET IN THE BALTIC STATES

Imbalance prices in the Baltic States

Highest and lowest bid prices

Until 9 October 12:00.

After 9 October 12:00.

Total activated energy

Until 9 October 12:00.

After 12:00 on 9 October, activated mFRR SA (scheduled activations).

After 12:00 on 9 October, activated mFRR DA (direct activations).

Average standard bid size

Until 9 October 12:00.

After 9 October 12:00.

In case of any doubts, questions or inaccuracies, please contact us at [email protected]. 

The information contained in the Market Overview is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in the Market Overview is to be construed or used as a basis for investment or as a basis for any claims against AST. 

Abbreviations and designations used:

LV - Latvia trade area, LT - Lithuania trade area, EE - Estonia trade area, PL - Poland trade area, FI - Finland trade area, SE4 - Sweden's fourth trade area, AT - Austrian trade area, BE - Belgium trade area, DE-LU - German- Luxembourg trade area, FR - France trade area, NL - the Netherlands trade area, DK1 and DK2 - Danish 1. and 2. trade area.

Load = monthly total commercial flow in kWh / monthly total net transfer capacity in kWh ("Net Transfer Capacity" NTC).

The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform is a central collection and publication of electricity generation, transportation and consumption data and information for the pan-European market.

Guarantee of Origin (GO) is an electronic document, that proves the origin of the generated electricity. GOs are uniquely identifiable, transferable, and therefore tradable and used (by cancellation) to provide information of supplied energy to the end-consumer. One GO = 1 MWh generated and injected into the grid that has an expiration of 12 months after the end of the production period.

* Here and in the following review, the electricity produced is the electricity injected into the grid and the electricity consumed is the electricity received from the grid for consumption.

** Fossil energy source – fossil gas; renewable energy sources – hydro, solar, wind, biogas and biomass.

[1] In Latvia there are 10 distribution system operators – for more information visit https://www.sprk.gov.lv/content/pakalpojumu-sniedzeji-1

[2] Here as electricity imports are not commercial transactions, but electricity that has physically entered the network from other countries.

[3] Here as electricity exports are not commercial transactions, but electricity physically transferred from the network to other countries.

[4] According to the (ENTSO-E) definition, which does not include electrical self consumption.

[5] Here as electricity imports are commercial transactions.